Robinhood in Talks With Crypto.com to Bring Yes-or-No Prediction Contracts to Its Platform

Robinhood is in active talks with Crypto.com to bring the exchange’s yes-or-no prediction contracts onto the brokerage’s platform, a move that would deepen Robinhood’s bet on a market segment still fighting state and federal regulators for legitimacy in the United States.

The proposed partnership would let Robinhood users trade Crypto.com’s prediction-market contracts through Robinhood’s existing prediction-market infrastructure, according to people familiar with the matter cited by the Wall Street Journal and reported by Investing.com. Robinhood already runs a prediction-markets product; the Crypto.com discussions are an expansion of that offering, not a launch from scratch. The WSJ report landed July 24, 2026, and was picked up by TradingView, Investing.com, and Moomoo within 24 hours.

A B2B Distribution Play

The structure matters. This is a B2B distribution arrangement — Crypto.com supplying contracts, Robinhood supplying the retail audience and the regulatory surface — rather than a direct consumer product launch by the Singapore-based exchange in the US market. That distinction lets Crypto.com reach American retail flow without building the distribution itself. Robinhood, for its part, gets more inventory for a product line it has already decided is core to its future.

Robinhood’s leadership has been preparing the ground for exactly this kind of expansion. The company’s CEO publicly addressed whether prediction markets constitute gambling — a question raised at the WSJ’s Future of Everything event, per Investor’s Business Daily reporting. That framing is not incidental. The gambling-versus-investing line is precisely where US regulators have drawn their sharpest objections, and prediction-market companies continue to fight legal battles between state and federal authorities. A partnership structure, in which Robinhood carries the compliance relationship with the end user, is a pragmatic workaround for a foreign exchange with no appetite for direct US regulatory exposure.

Intensifying Competition

The competitive backdrop is intensifying fast. Bernstein analysts have already raised their Robinhood price target to $160, betting that prediction markets will eclipse the brokerage’s crypto revenue by the second quarter — a projection that frames the Crypto.com talks as less opportunistic than inevitable. HHYPE$58.13▲2.40%‘s HIP-4 native prediction markets, meanwhile, went live with daily volume hitting $80 million, a signal that on-chain venues are moving aggressively into the same space Robinhood wants to own on the retail-brokerage side. The real question is whether Robinhood’s regulated rails and massive user base can outscale nimbler crypto-native competitors, or whether those competitors’ lower friction and round-the-clock operation gradually erode the brokerage’s advantage.

Part of a Broader Crypto Push

The talks also fit Robinhood’s broader crypto push. As of July 1, 2026, the brokerage was rolling out tokenized stocks of public companies that can trade around the clock and be used as collateral, per the WSJ. Prediction markets and tokenized equities share a common thesis: both extend the range of things a Robinhood user can trade beyond traditional stocks and options, and both sit in regulatory zones where the rules are either contested or still being written. Robinhood is effectively building a perimeter of novel asset classes around its core brokerage business, adding one contested product at a time.

A Cautious Market Backdrop

The broader crypto market offers a cautious backdrop for any deal announcement. Total crypto market cap stands at $2,282.38 billion, up 0.38% over 24 hours. The Fear & Greed Index reads 27 out of 100 — squarely in fear territory. BBTC$64,361.00▲0.40% trades at $64,325, EETH$1,875.17▲1.00% at $1,872, SSOL$74.45▲1.10% at $74.41. None of those figures suggest a risk-on environment where retail users are eager to pile into speculative new products, which raises a pointed question about timing: if Robinhood and Crypto.com are close to a deal, they are negotiating it into a market where appetite for risk is visibly suppressed.

That tension is the one to watch. Strategic conviction says prediction markets are a long-term revenue engine. Current market reality says sentiment is cautious and retail demand may not yet be there to match. Bernstein’s $160 price target and Hyperliquid’s $80 million daily volume both argue the sector’s trajectory is real regardless. A Fear & Greed reading of 27 argues the demand side hasn’t caught up. Robinhood’s next move — a signed deal with Crypto.com or a broader prediction-market rollout — will show which conviction the brokerage is actually trading on.

Sources: Investing.com (WSJ); Moomoo (WSJ); TradingView/Reuters.