Fed raises target range for federal funds rate to 3.75%–4% and releases projections

The Federal Open Market Committee voted 12-0 on Wednesday, September 16, to raise the federal funds target range by a quarter point to 3-3/4% to 4%.

The FOMC statement describes economic activity expanding at a solid pace, with resilient domestic spending, strong productivity growth, and capital investment holding up. Job gains have kept pace with workforce growth, and the unemployment rate hasn’t moved much. Inflation, though, remains elevated — the committee said the hike is meant to support a timelier return to its 2% target. The Fed is also continuing to maintain ample reserves in the banking system.

The committee described the move as a 0.25-percentage-point hike. The new target range is 3.75% to 4%, and the upper bound matches the 4% estimate cited in CoinDesk’s pre-meeting calendar. The 12-0 vote means all 12 voting members supported the increase — 12 divided by 12, or 100%.

The more consequential question for markets, in our view, is what the projections show. The September economic projections collect forecasts made by FOMC participants at the September 15–16 meeting. A projection that diverges from the market’s assumed inflation, growth, or labor path could, as analysis, prompt repricing across risk assets — but the actual participant figures would need to be weighed against existing assumptions before drawing any conclusion.

Timing, per CoinDesk’s meeting calendar: the policy decision was scheduled for 2:00 p.m. ET on September 16, with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference and the Summary of Economic Projections to follow at 2:30 p.m. ET. That same calendar had placed the estimated federal funds rate at 4.00%, up from the prior 3.75%. The upper bound of the new range matches that estimate exactly.

For crypto, the exposure sits in the forecasts. What the September 16 documents don’t establish is the size or direction of any such move; that depends entirely on how the released participant forecasts compare with existing assumptions.